Outbreaks of COVID-19 variants in US prisons: a mathematical modelling analysis of vaccination and reopening policies
Fernando Alarid Escudero, Profesor Investigador Titular de la División de Administración Pública del CIDE, junto con Theresa Ryckman, Elizabeth T Chin, Lea Prince, David Leidner, Elizabeth Long, David M Studdert, Joshua A Salomon, Jason R Andrews y Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert escribieron el artículo Outbreaks of COVID-19 variants in US prisons: a mathematical modelling analysis of vaccination and reopening policies en la revista Democratic Backsliding and Public Administration How Populists in Government Transform State Bureaucracies.
Summary
Background
Residents of prisons have experienced disproportionate COVID-19-related health harms. To control outbreaks, many prisons in the USA restricted in-person activities, which are now resuming even as viral variants proliferate. This study aims to use mathematical modelling to assess the risks and harms of COVID-19 outbreaks in prisons under a range of policies, including resumption of activities.
Methods
We obtained daily resident-level data for all California state prisons from Jan 1, 2020, to May 15, 2021, describing prison layouts, housing status, sociodemographic and health characteristics, participation in activities, and COVID-19 testing, infection, and vaccination status. We developed a transmission-dynamic stochastic microsimulation parameterised by the California data and published literature. After an initial infection is introduced to a prison, the model evaluates the effect of various policy scenarios on infections and hospitalisations over 200 days. Scenarios vary by vaccine coverage, baseline immunity (0%, 25%, or 50%), resumption of activities, and use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that reduce transmission by 75%. We simulated five prison types that differ by residential layout and demographics, and estimated outcomes with and without repeated infection introductions over the 200 days.
Continúa leyendo el artículo Outbreaks of COVID-19 variants in US prisons: a mathematical modelling analysis of vaccination and reopening policies aquí.