Fernando Alarid Escudero, Profesor Investigador Titular de la División de Administración Pública del CIDE, junto con Theresa Ryckman, Elizabeth T Chin, Lea Prince, David Leidner, Elizabeth Long, David M Studdert, Joshua A Salomon, Jason R Andrews y Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert escribieron el artículo Outbreaks of COVID-19 variants in US prisons: a mathematical modelling analysis of vaccination and reopening policies en la revista Democratic Backsliding and Public Administration How Populists in Government Transform State Bureaucracies.
Residents of prisons have experienced disproportionate COVID-19-related health harms. To control outbreaks, many prisons in the USA restricted in-person activities, which are now resuming even as viral variants proliferate. This study aims to use mathematical modelling to assess the risks and harms of COVID-19 outbreaks in prisons under a range of policies, including resumption of activities.
We obtained daily resident-level data for all California state prisons from Jan 1, 2020, to May 15, 2021, describing prison layouts, housing status, sociodemographic and health characteristics, participation in activities, and COVID-19 testing, infection, and vaccination status. We developed a transmission-dynamic stochastic microsimulation parameterised by the California data and published literature. After an initial infection is introduced to a prison, the model evaluates the effect of various policy scenarios on infections and hospitalisations over 200 days. Scenarios vary by vaccine coverage, baseline immunity (0%, 25%, or 50%), resumption of activities, and use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that reduce transmission by 75%. We simulated five prison types that differ by residential layout and demographics, and estimated outcomes with and without repeated infection introductions over the 200 days.
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