The economic benefits and costs of COVID19 mitigation measures in Mexico
Irvin Rojas, Profesor Investigador Titular de la División de Economía del CIDE, escribió el artículo The economic benefits and costs of COVID19 mitigation measures in Mexico en el Journal of Economic Theory.
Abstract
In this paper I calculate the daily flows of COVID-19 cases under the scenario of social distance and restricted economic activity implemented during the first months after the beginning of the epidemic, and under a counterfactual uncontrolled scenario with no mitigation measures. I estimate that social distance policies reduce the number of COVID-19 cases by 33%, saving over 292,000 lives. The benefits of these measures are monetized as 526 billion USD. Under a plausible economic recovery trajectory, I estimate that the net cost of mitigation in terms of output gap is equal to 35% of Mexico’s 2019 GDP.
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