Growth, bank credit, and inflation in Mexico: evidence from an ARDL-bounds testing approach

This paper written by Miguel Ángel Tinoco-Zermeño, Francisco Venegas-Martínez and Víctor Hugo Torres-Preciado, explores the long-run effects of inflation on the dynamics of private sector bank credit and economic growth in Mexico over the period 1969–2011. With an ARDL-type model, the statistical results suggest that the availability of private sector bank credit in the economy exerts a positive impact on real GDP. In addition, inflation rates have contributed negatively to the increase in private credit, liquid liabilities, and financial development. A key outcome is that one percent increase in inflation is associated with a 0.07 % fall in long-run real rate of output through its effect on bank credit to the private sector. Another crucial finding is that policies of financial liberalization have helped stimulate economic growth. Reinforcing the literature on finance and growth, this study reaffirms that inflation rates are detrimental to long-run financial development and economic growth.

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Latin American Economic Review aims to be the leading general interest journal on topics relevant to Latin America. The journal welcomes high-quality theoretical and quantitative papers on economic, social and political-economy issues with a regional focus. Articles presenting new data bases or describing structural reforms within a rigorous theoretical framework will also be considered. A few (illustrative) examples of topics that may be of special interest to this journal include: inflation, informal sector, corruption, crime, drug policy, unions, social exclusion, price controls, energy and environmental policy, natural resources, and technology transfer.